Edmonton’s healthy residential housing market was the first to emerge from the depths of the recession, with sales surpassing year-to-date figures for 2008 in June 2009. Low interest rates, greater affordability, and pent-up demand were behind the push for real estate early in the year, as consumer confidence levels slowly escalated. First-time buyers snapped up entrylevel product at significant cost savings. By October, momentum had reached the top-end of the market, with sales over $750,000 moving ahead of 2008 levels. Given the solid percentage increases reported since June, the number of homes sold by year-end is expected to climb to 20,500 units, up 18 per cent over 2008, and on par with 2007 figures. Average price, after peaking in 2007 at $338,636, has since stabilized at $321,000—down just four per cent from 2008 levels.  

The balanced residential marketplace took both realtors and consumers by surprise in 2009, many of whom hoped for the best but prepared for the worst. However, economic performance, with a 2.8 per cent decline in GDP growth forecast for 2009, has been less than stellar. The energy sector continues to battle back in Alberta—oil prices are on the upswing and forecast to rise further next year. While challenges still lie ahead, some positive industry developments, namely the Kearl oil sands project, are hoped to return to the oil sector to a growth cycle or at least off set recent contraction. The good news is that real GDP is expected to climb three per cent in Alberta in 2010, bolstered by housing, new construction, a recovering oil and gas sector, and consumer spending. Oil prices are expected to hover around the $80 mark—which should serve to kickstart activity in the mega sand projects. Improving global demand for commodities is forecast to place upward pressure on prices, while rising confidence and more normal crop conditions should also have a positive impact on economic performance in 2010. Retail sales at 5.6 per cent will be one of the top performers in the country, falling just behind British Columbia and Saskatchewan. Unemployment levels hover at approximately 7.1 per cent. Building on the real estate recovery already underway, the number of homes sold in Edmonton is expected to edge slightly higher in 2010, rising to 21,000, up two per cent over 2009. Housing values, finally on the upswing, should reach an estimated $330,000 by yearend-2010-a three per cent increase over one year earlier. Inventory levels—at about 5,500—are forecast to remain stable, representing a three to four month supply. Market conditions should be balanced throughout much of the year, leaning slightly in favour of the seller. First-time buyers are expected to once again play a significant role, stimulating activity in virtually every segment of the market. It’s anticipated that demand for condominiums will be constant, given their affordable entry-point. An influx of new conversion units in months ahead should be absorbed relatively quickly but fewer multi-unit housing starts in 2010 overall may apply some pressure to the resale market.

To view the full RE/MAX Housing Market Outlook 2010 covering all across Canada click here...